News | Français

Climate impacts of 5.8M new homes by 2030
November 15, 2023

Stay tuned for new insights and sharp policy recommendations.


Canada needs 5.8 million new homes by 2030 to restore affordability – which is more than one-third of Canada’s existing housing stock all over again. How and where we build these homes carries major implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and for Canada’s climate targets. 

To date, however, the climate impacts of adding 5.8 million homes have been largely unknown. That’s why, in Fall 2023, the Task Force for Housing & Climate commissioned three distinct GHG modeling reports. Together, these three analyses provide the most comprehensive modeling of the GHG implications of new housing ever conducted in Canada.

Collectively, the three research reports show that, with weak policy approaches, adding 5.8 million homes could lock in as much as 142.7 Mt in new annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030. On the other hand, with aggressive policy approaches, adding 5.8 million homes could generate as little as 43 Mt of annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030. In other words, strong policy leadership at the federal, provincial and municipal levels could prevent almost 100 Mt of annual GHGs from new housing – or 34% of Canada’s 2030 GHG reduction target under the Paris Agreement.

To arrive at these results, three research partners used state-of-the-art modeling approaches to explore the three biggest sources of GHG emissions associated with new housing: building energy performance; embodied emissions from construction materials and supportive infrastructure; and land use planning decisions. 

“By commissioning this state-of-the-art research, we’re able to fill a critical data gap on the climate impact of new housing construction in Canada and inform our work to create a policy blueprint for housing that is affordable, climate-resilient and aligned with net-zero goals by next spring.”

Research Partners